Isbahaysi Media Editorial Board
Somalia is at a critical crossroads. Regional leaders remain in office beyond their mandates, sustained largely by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s approval. This is happening as the President pushes for direct elections even though the country is not ready for it.
To make things more complicated, a heavily armed opposition based in Mogadishu, which often resorts to violence, claims that President Mohamud is planning to seek to extend his rule. Somalia now finds itself in uncharted territory unprepared to manage the risks that lie ahead.
In an attempt to ease the standoff, President Hassan recently engaged with the opposition, but the meetings were short-lived and collapsed. Today, on 20th July, the President, keen on softening a very restless opposition, has again held talks with a section of the opposition.
Things can only change if the President admits that Somalia is not ready for direct voting. The country lacks the basic requirements, there is no national voter list, and the systems needed to support an election are not in place.
Indeed, large portions of territory remain under Al-Shabaab control. Security forces are stretched thin, and political institutions remain too fragile to support a transparent national vote. Persisting on this path risks triggering chaos.
Over the last three years, the President has taken several controversial measures. It is worth noting that the powerful opposition has given the President the space to operate, albeit through condemning press statements. However, the President, against everyone’s advice, has unilaterally amended four contentious chapters in the constitution.
As a first step toward a solution and one that is key for the opposition, the President must reverse these changes and halt any further plans to amend the constitution at a time when the country is deeply divided and all stakeholders do not support such a move.
The President has also, in a shocking move, dismantled the National Consultative Council (NCC), once the country’s key platform for dialogue between federal and regional authorities, which enjoyed legitimacy among the public. It remains to be seen what the President can achieve in full if he wants to sideline regional leaders from core decision-making.
It is especially troubling that President Mohamud once opposed the very tactics he now uses.In 2021, in a shocking move, he took up arms and urged the army to mutiny. Now, he is pushing even harsher measures that seem aimed at extending his rule.
As elections draw near, the President and his allies must recognise that Somalia needs reform that is built on consensus, not coercion. This starts with reversing the unilateral constitutional changes and re-establishing relationships withJubaland and Puntland regional leaders who have withdrawn their support for his administration.
President Mohamud should also reconvene the NCC as the main platform for discussions, and reconstitute the electoral commission through a broadly based negotiated political agreement. Until conditions for a secure, inclusive, and credible one-person, one-vote election are in place, the country should continue to have parliamentary elections.
It is worth noting that no national vote can succeed without meaningful progress in freeing territory from Al-Shabaab control. Without these steps, the President must accept that his ambitious electoral plan, however well-intentioned, is bound to collapse.
Somalia’s future will not be secured through deadlines or declarations, but through trust between leaders, institutions, and the public. If that does not happen, elections risk not democratic progress, but democratic failure.
With heavily armed opposition actors still present in Mogadishu, such a breakdown could undo years of fragile gains. Isbahaysi Media calls on President Mohamud to abandon unilateralism and recommit to a path grounded in consensus, legality, and national unity.