In reflection of the renewed engagement between Somali Government and the Ethiopian Government in negotiations mediated by Tukiye, this article intends to highlight the dynamics, challenges and implications of this critical dialogue at a time when the Greater Horn of Africa (GHoA) region characterised by its vibrant cultural diversity and rich history is at a critical juncture. It is commonly agreed that the recent political tension between Somalia and Ethiopia fuelled by Ethiopia’s expansionist ambitions to gain access to the sea, presents a significant challenge to the regional peace and cooperation. However, as Turkiye takes the initiative to mediate between these two neighbouring nations, which shares far more commonalities than differences, I am compelled to underline the complexities of the situation and guard against potential risks that could undermine genuine efforts for reconciliation and cooperation.
Ethiopia, a landlocked nation has long sought access to the sea, particularly the Red Sea, to bolster its economic aspirations and naval ambition. While such aspirations are not inherently problematic to Somalia – only if it is based on international laws and norms, and it is purely for commercial purpose – the manner in which Ethiopian government is pursuing raises serious concerns, hence, Ethiopia’s declared intention to secure sea access for both commercial and naval base purposes and rebuilding of its naval forces without having a sea is a testimony that Ethiopia has ulterior geopolitical motives in its quest for sea access.
Somali peoples around the globe, whose sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity have historically been under strain for centuries partly due to joint collaboration between colonial powers and Ethiopia (Abyssinians), perceive Ethiopia’s renewed ambitions and assertiveness as a direct threat to their territorial integrity, unity, sovereignty and national interests. Over the centuries, the tensions between the two sides repeatedly presented conflicts in territorial disputes, ideological wars and thereby persistent mistrust between the two nations/peoples and despite recent periods of relative calm through which the two sides witnessed efforts to normalise relations including economic and security cooperation, the legacy of the protracted rivalry and mutual distrust still remains a significant obstacle to lasting peace and stability.
However, Turkiye’s involvement as a mediator and a potential guarantor is indeed a welcome step, as it reflects the international community’s recognition of the magnitude of the potential security risks posed to the Horn of Africa region and beyond by the Ethiopia’s new endeavour to get sea-access by hook or by crook and therefore the urgent need for genuine dialogue and mutual understanding between the two sides. In its effort though to mediate the two sides, Turkiye must not be confused with the current Somali government’s contradictory and disjointed foreign policy, which sadly sometimes, prioritise factional or short-term political gains over the long-term national interests – particularly in the context of the ongoing Somalia-Ethiopia negotiations -. In this regard, it is crucial to highlight the risk that Ethiopia’s potential manipulating tactics due to the conceivable weaknesses and aimless of Somali’s current government poses to the mediation process, hence, the recent high level political engagement between Somali President H.E. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed against the backdrop of unresolved negotiations of national importance.
Furthermore, considering that Ethiopia already has signed transport & transit agreements with Djibouti and Kenya, securing access to/from international markets, it is not erroneous to imagine that Ethiopia has ulterior motives in its unwavering attempts to have access to the Somali seas. Besides, why is Ethiopia so determined to gain access to the sea through Somalia while not making similar demands of other neighboring countries, such as Sudan, Kenya, Eritrea, or Djibouti, which has even offered Ethiopia an entire port to use and administer? Somali people have every right to be anxiously and urge Turkiye, as mediator, to remain vigilant and to carefully assess potential risks, particularly, any proposals from the Ethiopian side seeking access to sea – commercial or otherwise – through the Red Sea.
Any potential agreement that guarantees Ethiopia access to Somali seas through the Red Sea poses significant risks not only to Somalia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, unity and national interests but also to the regional security and it is imperative that the Turkish mediators act decisively to protect these core values. The unexpected recent full political engagement of the Somali President H.E. Hassan Sh. Mohamud with his Ethiopian counterpart Dr. Abiy Ahmed, amidst pending negotiations of national significance must serves as critical reminder about the weaknesses and aimlessness within the Somali government, therefore any mediation effort that overlooks Somali people’s legitimate concerns risks deepening historical imbalances rather than fostering equitable solutions.
Somali people’s vision for the Greater Horn of Africa region is rightfully grounded in the principles of peace, equality, justice, democracy and freedom. This vision seeks to transcend historical grievances, ideological divides and developmental disparities integrating the fundamental interests of Somali people with those of the broader GHoA communities. In the context of Somalia-Ethiopia relations with their problematic history therefore, a process-driven approach must offers a genuine roadmap – first rebuilding trust, then addressing historical grievances, then bridging divisions, then establishing a common foundation to address shared challenges and finally mutual economic, social, security cooperation. This approach stands in stark contrast to militarism, expansionism and hegemonic mindset, which have too often troubled the region.
The Somali people’s advocacy for a peaceful and interconnected Greater Horn of Africa undoubtedly represents the aspirations of the broader communities in the region, including Somalis and Ethiopians and it serves as a beacon of future stability for the region in an increasingly geopolitical turbulent world with technological disturbances and differing strategic interests and hardly-reconcilable world views among the major powers, hence “46 resolutions were adopted at the United Nations Security Council in 2024 compared to 50 in 2023, 54 in 2022, and 57 in 2021” (UNSC January 2025 report). In this background, it is important for Turkiye to approach the upcoming negotiations with extra caution, particularly with regard to strictly maintaining process-driven approach throughout the negotiations before rushing to a conclusion or try quick-fix solutions – as we have seen in Addis Ababa recently – which may risk undermining the fragile progress achieved thus far.
In addition to that, while Turkiye has irrefutably demonstrated its commitment to foster peace between the two sides, it must remain vigilant against Ethiopia’s potential exploitation tactics. Ethiopia may seek to capitalise on Somalia’s current vulnerabilities to advance its maritime ambitions, undermining the spirit of equitable negotiation. Therefore, it should be warned that any outcome achieved through arm-twisting will eventually not only undermine the mediation effort but it will also further exacerbate the already fragile situation. therefore, as a mediator, Turkiye must, at minimum, ensure that its mediation approach prioritise ensuring the sovereignty, territorial integrity, unity and rights of all parties involved.
Furthermore, due the controversy surrounding the security agreement between Turkiye and Somali government, which highlights critical issues of legality, transparency and the potential damage to Türkiye’s reputation and standing in Somalia as it bypassed processes, such as cabinet discussions, proper parliamentary approval and institutional involvement, Türkiye must prioritize transparency and address public concerns in this complex issue.
Given the complexity of the task in hand now – sovereign issue-, this negotiation process demands time and careful consideration through which process-driven approach should be employed and completed on gradual bases, so that both parties engage in mutual confidence-building steps that will enhance the likelihood of meaningful and durable outcomes.
Greater Horn of Africa’s path to success lies in embracing peace over violence and collaboration over unilateralism. In a world increasingly defined by major power conflicts, the GHoA region has, once again, got an opportunity to chart a new course of regional relations characterised by mutual respect, fairness, justice, and win-win cooperation.
This new prospect will not only address immediate challenges but it will also lay the groundwork for future sustainable development and stability. Therefore, Somalia’s vision for the GHoA region – a vision that emphasises interconnectedness and shared prosperity – offers a viable blueprint for peace and prosperity. It is a vision that recognises the interdependence of the region’s peoples and seeks to harness it for collective benefit. By embracing dialogue, equality and mutual respect, the countries of the GHoA can and must advance cooperation, promote good governance and deepen regional solidarity nevertheless Turkiye, as a key mediator and a potential guarantor has, at this stage, a pivotal role to play in steering this process toward a positive lasting outcome and impact. The choices made in the coming few weeks and months will shape the region’s future for generations to come and we should therefore all remember that the nations of the Greater Horn of Africa region can and should march forward in great strides in building a region defined by unity, equality and shared prosperity.
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Author: Mr Balal Mohamed Cusman, Former State Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Somalia. Email: [email protected] X:@BalalCusman Skype:bcusman1
