Somalia, a nation known for its political turmoil, is once again treading the same destructive path of the past three decades. Progress toward completion of federalism and nation-building has been undermined by authoritarian policies characterized by a “drag me in the mud and will drag you in the mud” mentality.
Back in May 2024, the president was cautioned against pursuing constitutional changes without the support of Puntland State and other stakeholders. More than 70 members of Somalia’s federal parliament have withdrawn from and boycotted the constitutional review process, citing key concerns that threaten the country’s unity and stability. These encompass:
• Lack of Consensus: The May 2023, the NCC meeting endorsed constitutional changes related to electoral model for the country without Puntland Regional State’s presence, undermining the council’s consensus-based decision.
• Procedural Violations: Parliament’s leadership disregarded rules and procedures, compromising the process’s integrity and credibility.
• Quorum Requirements: The Speaker insisted on proceeding without the required parliamentary quorum, undermining representation and active involvement.
• Extensive Amendments: Proposed changes comprise four comprehensive chapters, effectively creating a new constitution. These include:
• Chapter 1: Nine articles and 21 clauses modified, with two deleted and nine new clauses introduced.
• Chapter 2: Thirty articles and 60 clauses amended, with two articles and 23 clauses removed and one article and 27 new articles added.
• Chapter 3: Six articles and 15 clauses modified, with one clause deleted, three new articles, and 13 clauses added.
• Chapter 4: A new chapter proposing a presidential system and new electoral model. The boycotting MPs urged the President to refrain from interfering by soliciting members of parliament, and to avoid actions undermining national unity. Nevertheless, he persisted with his agenda, using gratification and promises of cabinet positions to earn the support he needed from parliamentarians.
Moreover, instead of then seeking to normalize relations with Puntland and engaging in meaningful dialogue with its leader, the president chose to alienate the Puntland president by appointing politicians who oppose President Deni to key positions. This action appears to be a strategy to wage a political war within Puntland, undermining Puntland leadership and fostering further divisions in an already fractured political environment between the two parties.
Deepening Crisis
On October 7, 2024, Jubaland President Ahmed Madoobe walked out of the National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting in Mogadishu, Somalia, due to disagreements over the proposal for a one-year extension of FMS terms, coupled with concerns about the absence of key stakeholders, including Puntland. The NCC aimed to address critical national issues, including elections and term extension. Somalia’s President tried very hard to pressure Madoobe to come back to the NCC even asking Kenyan President Ruto for help due to Madoobe’s close relationship with Kenya. However, this effort failed to deliver any meaningful results. Despite the disagreements, Somalia’s President convened the NCC again on October 27, 2024, without Jubaland and Puntland and a final communique was released that has term extension for the remaining FMS and election dates for districts and regional elections.
On November 2, 2024, Somalia’s President addressed Parliament, calling for a swift action on the NCC’s one person, one vote decision and requesting a one-month postponement of the parliamentary recess to allow time for approval of the disputed electoral laws. The move was swiftly criticized by former Presidents, (Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo & Sheikh Sharif), the Jubaland regional state President, and other stakeholders. The next Day Mr. Ahmed Madoobe, took swift action, calling all Members of the federal parliament from Jubaland state to convene in Kismayo for emergency consultations. This was followed by a wave of resignations from cabinet members representing Jubaland, who cited deep disagreements with the FGS handling of national issues.
On November 9, 2024, the President of Jubaland announced the long-awaited list of the State Election Commission, signaling his intent to move forward with elections. However, the Ministry of Interior of the FGS quickly responded with a letter discrediting the list and refusing recognition. The president’s unilateral actions regarding the elections have effectively granted Madoobe legitimacy to hold elections and remain in power for another five years. When those responsible for upholding the constitution disregard the law, it sets a troubling precedent for others to follow. Ahmed’s move was expected, it is too late to stop him. This reminds me a famous English proverb “a stitch in time saves nine”, meaning addressing problems promptly can prevent them from becoming much larger issues later on.
Election Disagreements
Every Somali understands that indirect elections were only intended for a single legislative period to end Somalia’s transitional political landscape. These elections were seen as a step toward establishing a more representative and democratic system. However, corruption and favoritism throughout the process has severely compromised the intent of the indirect elections. Many feel disillusioned, as the elections did not fulfill their promise of fairness and inclusiveness. Consequently, there is widespread hesitation to continue with indirect elections, as they no longer inspire confidence among the people.
It is very unfortunate to see that every 4 years, a small group of individuals decides the future direction of the country. The Somali people generally believe that one-person, one-vote elections are the only legitimate path to achieving authentic leadership. Historical evidence show that manipulated electoral processes can lead to severe repercussions.
The sticky point in the disagreement revolves around how to ensure fair elections, specifically the approach and methodology for conducting them. This involves consensus-building over electoral systems, voting procedures, and the principles guiding the electoral process. During Farmaajo’s Presidency Somalia’s parliament passed electoral laws for a one person one vote election albeit late time of his term. Due to prolonged political disagreements that delayed the electoral process, Somalia reverted to indirect elections in 2022. The disagreements stemmed from disputes over electoral procedures, voting systems, and representation. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud who was leading the opposition group opposed the electoral law and he alleged the government of committing constitutional violations, ignoring political inclusiveness, and consensus building. Unwisely, he now seeks to unilaterally implement policies that contradict his previous stance.
What is at Stake?
The endeavor to replace indirect elections with a new system designed solely to serve the interests of a single group will further diminish trust among the Somali people. Such a move is perceived as a blatant attempt to consolidate power and undermine the democratic process, leading to increased skepticism and resentment among citizens. This situation could potentially exacerbate existing divisions within the country, fostering an environment of distrust and frustration. If the disagreement remains unresolved, it will complicate future elections and hinder efforts toward lasting peace and unity in Somalia. For federalism to work effectively, there must be negotiations and cooperation between the FGS, FMS and other stakeholders. Villa Somalia’s move excluding key stakeholders carries several risks: 1) it threatens the agreed-upon federal system, 2) reduces federalism to a mere constitutional formality, and 3) endanger the unity of the country. Unfortunately, many parliament members who may endorse these contested electoral laws seem unaware of the consequences of rigged election systems in a fractured society like Somalia, and honestly the don’t seem to care so long as they can make short-term gain.
Pathway to Resolution
Somalia needs a fair election and agreed-upon electoral process, as this is crucial for true representation. If not handled properly, it could plunge the country back into square one. The electoral law and process that the current government is attempting to impose are unrealistic due to the limited time remaining until the next election and the absence of endorsement from all parties involved. Transitioning to direct elections calls for meticulous planning and reform. As the Italian proverb indicates, “Fra dire e fare c’è in mezzo il mare,” meaning there’s a vast ocean between words and actions. Thus, it is essential to turn intentions into tangible actions.
To facilitate fair elections, several critical steps need to be undertaken:
1. Political Agreement: Collaboration among stakeholders is crucial due to the existing lack of trust in the nation.
2. Clear Timeline: Establishing a transparent timeline ensures accountability in the electoral process.
3. Constitutional Court: In the event of electoral disputes, the constitutional court would ensure disputes are resolved impartially and constitutionally.
4. Pre-Election Preparations:
-Independent Electoral Commission: It is vital to create an impartial body to oversee fair elections. The commission’s composition and selection process are crucial for its effectiveness. To ensure representation and buy-in from all Federal Member States (FMS), the 20-member commission should be established through an agreed-upon power-sharing structure.
– Party Registration: Political representation (3-5 parties) is essential for a democratic landscape.
– Voter Registration: Encouragement of citizens participation should be a top priority.
– Raise Awareness: Educating citizens about the importance of voting will enable them to engage fully in the electoral process.
Realistic Timeline
Based on a true assessment, this should be a realistic timeline for transitioning to One-Person, One-Vote Elections in Somalia
- 2024 – Immediate Action: Begin laying the groundwork for fair elections.
- Pre-election preparations (see above),
- Strengthen Security Measures: Prepare and enhance security protocols to ensure safe election environments.
- Engagement of International Observers: Invite international observers to monitor and ensure the integrity of the electoral process.
- Constitutional Court Formation: Establish a court to address election disputes and fraud.
- 2026- Indirect Elections: Conduct the elections, while maintaining a focus on improving the electoral framework.
- Next Administration’s Role: Ensure that the next administration actively builds upon progress made, avoiding disruptions.
- 2027-2029 – Continuous Preparations: Ongoing efforts to refine voter registration, public awareness, and security measures.
- Monitor Progress: Assess and adjust strategies as necessary to stay on track for the upcoming elections.
- 2030 – One-Person, One-Vote Elections: Conduct the first legitimate one-person, one vote elections, ensuring fair and transparent processes. However, this assumes that election preparations begin immediately and continues uninterrupted. In the meantime, the 2026 elections remain indirect, and the next administration must build upon the current administration’s progress and continue preparations throughout its term, ensuring no excuses for delays in 2030.
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Dr. Ali Said Faqi
SCIENTIST, DIPLOMAT AND LEGISLATOR
