The Looming Federal Threat and Puntland’s Deployment of Stabilization Forces

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(Mogadishu, Isbahaysi): In April last year, a significant surge of tens of thousands of militia loyal to Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), the leader of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), flooded the capital, Khartoum. These RSF forces, mobilized from the Darfur region and neighboring countries, posed a serious challenge to Sudanese leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Sudan Sovereignty Council. The conflict, which erupted on April 15, endangered the state and military of Sudan, claiming thousands of lives.

A similar threat now looms over Somalia, particularly Puntland, following Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s decision to escalate security unrest in the region. The move is seen as an effort to prevent Puntland from becoming a stronghold for opposition forces seeking to unseat him.

At the beginning of this month, President Hassan Sheikh established a special command and force directly under the leadership of Major General Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh, a native of Qardho district in Puntland. This appointment coincided with a military recruitment drive in the regions of Bari, Nugaal, and Mudug, overseen by factions opposed to President Said Abdullahi Deni, who lost the election earlier this year. These factions have since established a base in Mogadishu.

The destabilization of Puntland’s security began with the recruitment of 3,000 soldiers, divided among groups fervently opposed to Said Deni. These recruits, who are reportedly unconcerned with the security and stability of their home regions, are expected to take direct orders from President Hassan Sheikh.

High-ranking officials speaking to Isbahaysi Media confirmed that these forces, trained in Mogadishu and abroad, will be deployed to Puntland once their training is completed, primarily transported by ships to coastal areas in the Bari region, including Xaafuun and Baargaal.

In Mogadishu, further mobilization is underway, preparing clan-based forces designed to maintain President Hassan Sheikh’s power if the agreed election timeline for 2026 is not adhered to.

Isbahaysi obtained satellite images, later confirmed by surveillance drones over Mogadishu airport, showing 21 technical vehicles gathered at President Hassan Sheikh’s party headquarters near Aden Adde International Airport.

Security experts consulted by Isbahaysi indicated that the weapons seen at President Hassan Sheikh’s party headquarters raise two major concerns: potential violation of the arms embargo lifted from Somalia and the prevention of other capable candidates from mounting military movements against the President’s ambition for a 2026 self-coronation.

Information obtained by Isbahaysi suggests that President Hassan Sheikh plans to appoint Asad Osman Diano as Chief of Police and Hassan Nur Shuute, currently the Chief of the Armed Forces Court, as Military Commander. Both are believed to support his political ambitions.

In Puntland, President Said Abdullahi Deni, who was early informed of this mobilization against his region, has started a disarmament plan for Puntland clans, the creation of special security forces directly reporting to the Garowe Presidential Palace, and the recruitment of 5,000 new soldiers. This effort is currently overseen by the Deputy Director of the Puntland Presidential Palace.