The Somali government is moving ahead with plans for public registration in an attempt to hold the country’s first “one person, one vote” local elections in years. The exercise has faced unpopularity, lacks public trust, and has had serious setbacks despite aggressive attempts by the Federal Government to rally the public to complete registration and take the voter ID card.

Division among political leaders, lack of clear agreement with federal member states, and security threats are some of the key reasons that will likely make the exercise a futile and incredibly hard task for an electoral commission that was recently established unilaterally by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed.

Pro-government media and social media have been sharing images and videos of local leaders, ordinary people, and local officials lining up to receive voter registration cards in Mogadishu, Baidoa, Dhusamareb, and Jowhar.

State leaders like South West’s Abdiaziz Lafta-Gareen and Galmudug’s Ahmed Qoorqoor are shown registering in these ceremonies alongside citizens, giving the impression that the exercise has the support of many.

But there is more to these well-staged photos. Behind them is a more nuanced reality. According to critics, the registration drives are staged to appear as if they are progressing, but do not reflect the situation on the ground. They contend that the events are largely for show, with only government supporters turning out, while others are either excluded or distrust the process.

The government recently claimed that 500,000 Mogadishu residents have registered to vote. The authorities point to this as proof of broad public support. 

But opposition leaders and impartial observers argue that the number is exaggerated and misleading. They believe only particular groups are encouraged to register mainly those likely to support the president’s political agenda.

President Hassan Sheikh’s government is also being accused of creating a new National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC) in the absence of consultation. Its members include alleged loyalists of the president, and this has questioned the independence and neutrality of the commission.

At the same time, talks between the government and opposition collapsed over constitutional amendments that the president has made, the president’s push for one man, one vote, which the opposition says is unfeasible now, and an electoral body they see as compromised and untrustworthy. The opposition accuses the government of trying to cling to power; the government says it’s promoting democracy.

Security is a very serious problem. Al-Shabaab continues to carry out deadly attacks and controls large rural territories where election officials cannot reach. Some federal member states, including Puntland and Jubaland, have rejected the federal plan outright. They argue that Mogadishu cannot decide on a national voting system without broad agreement.

Somalia’s past elections have faced delays and disputes. The last one, held in 2021 to 2022, was postponed by over a year and nearly triggered violent conflict, with the current president, then in opposition, rejecting some of the measures he now wants implemented. There is a risk of repeating this scenario, as Mogadishu based opposition groups are arming at unprecedented levels to challenge the government if it refuses to change course.

While the push for one man, one vote is needed in Somalia, analysts warn that without real political consensus and better security, the plan could come apart and lead to more division and turmoil.